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Forecast Discussion for BOU NWS Office 
000
FXUS65 KBOU 312049
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SHORT TERM...THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION AS AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. INTEGRATED PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND AN INCH OVER THE FRONT
RANGE TO NEAR 1.4" OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
A MID LVL CIRCULATION WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS LINCOLN
AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY TODAY AND THIS HAS CREATED MOST OF THE
CONVECTION JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BUT NOW STORMS EXTENDING UP INTO
WASHINGTON CO. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
LINCOLN CO DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN
UNDER CLOUD COVER AND LESS CAPE AVAILABILITY. GIVEN THE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE DENVER AREA BUT
A BETTER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS LARIMER CO WITH STRONGER CAPES
OF 1000-1500J/KG AND FAVORABLE SERLY FLOW. THE STORMS THAT ARE IN
THE HIGHER EAST SLOPES WILL MOST LIKELY STAY ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS PROFILERS SHOWING THE E-SE FLOW UP TO AROUND 500MB WITH
VERY LOW STORM MOTIONS. SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE WATCH AREA WITH STILL ONGOING HEATING.

AS FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN
EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA BY LATE SUNDAY THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME ENHANCED ACTIVITY WITH THE WEAK
ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE. THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OK FOR NOW. AGAIN...MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FLASH FLOODING WITH STORM MOTIONS UNDER 5KT. OVERALL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT MAY END UP BEING HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD LIKE TO
ASSESS HOW TODAYS CONVECTION PLAYS OUT BEFORE TARGETING AN AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE ROTATING OVER COLORADO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US CONTINUES.
THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS. STORM
MOTION WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF FLOODING POTENTIAL A BIT. CAPES ON
MONDAY WILL BE UP NEAR 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING A LITTLE TO 1.3-1.6 INCHES AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY MOTIONS NEAR ZERO. UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD ANCHOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING STORMS TO THE FOOTHILLS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL.  THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY OUT A BIT
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SERLY FLOW AND LOWER SFC BASED
CAPES. WOULD HAVE TO RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO GET ANYTHING
GOING. THE MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AIRPORTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9PM FOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE...ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. (ZONES 41..46..47)

$$

ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion